Ladies Logic

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Risky Business

Last week, I commented that it appeared that the bloom was coming off of the Obama Rose. Jason (from the Utah Amicus) left a comment that he felt my analysis was "off" to which I replied, let's wait and see what the July and August polling and fund raising numbers start to say before we go there. Well if this weekends polling is any indication, it looks like my analysis was vindicated. What is telling is the disparity of results between registered voters and likely voters.

Obama was ahead 47%-44% among registered voters, down from a 6-percentage point lead he had last month. McCain led 49%-45% among likely voters, reversing a 5-point Obama lead among that group. In both cases, the margin of error is +/—4 points.

That wild swing can be explained, as Brian Faughnan of RedState shows (HTAllahpundit at HA)

There's no question that enthusiasm for Obama has come down since it became clear over the last few months that he's just a man. But the drop in enthusiasm among young voters and Democrats is startling. If you then contrast it with the steadiness of the number for Republican voters -- who are supposed to be dispirited about their candidate and their prospects -- Democrats have real reason to be worried.

Take a look at the graph above. The percentage of 18-29's that are "certain to vote" has dropped off 18% since March. The Democrats "certain to vote" has dropped off by 16% while the percentage of Republicans "certain to vote" has stayed the same. That is indeed startling and it is also not surprising. The Senator's "race to the center" started as soon as he locked up the nomination in late May and since then he has shown those idealistic 18-29's that he is just another Chicago politician who will say anything in order to get what he wants.

Which again leads us back to judgment. Senator Obama says that we should elect him based on his judgment. Since June 1st we have seen time after time, that his judgment is not all that it was cracked up to be. His 20 year relationship with his "spiritual mentor" was thrown aside when it became politically expedient. Ditto other long term relationships. He used his "judgment" to allow "Access Hollywood" to interview his daughters - a judgment he regretted the minute the interview aired. With the last 60 days worth of "judgment" behind us and in print, we have to wonder what other decisions the Senator will make that he will "regret" within days, hours or even minutes of him making them. Is it any wonder that more Americans think that Senator Obama would be a "riskier choice" for President?

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posted by The Lady Logician at 12:05 PM

13 Comments:

  • Senator Obama voted against the rule of law earlier this month, and that lost him a lot of support.

    Obama's a Constitutional law expert, therefore he obviously knew the FISA amendment bill was unconstitutional. He also knew it would cover up the Bush administration's widespread warrantless surveillance of Americans, and enable it to continue.

    That extreme level of cynicism, right out in the open, is bound to turn off young voters.

    By Blogger rmwarnick, at 2:33 PM  

  • I'm quite surprised by this. There have been all sorts of editorials lately about how Obama is getting his base energized, and that the young people of today, which make up much of his adoring fan base, are more likely to actually vote than they have been in the past.

    The next few months should be very interesting.

    By Blogger Cameron, at 5:25 PM  

  • These nuances do not overcome what Real Clear Politics shows as a landslide. Bloom or not, Obama appears to be a full professor at the Electoral College.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:05 AM  

  • Mark - the thing is, if you look at the RCP's rollong average it shows that Obama has lost support (with minor bumps) since the middle of June when he finally locked up the nomination. If anything, the RCP rolling average APPEARS to back up Rasmussen's and USA Today's conclusions.

    Look, I will be the first to admit (as I have done several times in the past if you want to go through the archives) that polling this early in the cycle is beyond flawed. Just take a look at the polling from July of 2000 and 2004! That is why you have to look beyond the raw numbers at the methodology and the trends and the trends right now do not appear to favor Senator Obama. That is not to say that it can't change between now and November. All it will take is one or two good debates to get the mojo back - or lose it even further.

    LL

    By Blogger The Lady Logician, at 11:07 AM  

  • rmwarnick - I think (my opinion only) that FISA was the tipping point. There was the flip-flop-flip on Iraq, the FISA vote, his comments on the Heller v. DC SCOTUS decision the list goes on. To me, it is not surprising that he is doing this but then again I grew up with Chicago politics, I understand it...it's very pragmatic - like I now tend to be...and 18-29's are not pragmatic people. They are very ideological by their nature which is why they are less involved in politics (since politics is by IT'S nature more pragmatic). I fully identify with these 18-29's because I was once one of them!

    This is why this drop, if it holds, could be fatal to the Obama campaign. At it's most effective (in the primaries) the campaign had the idealistic youth on the Democratic side all wrapped up like Ron Paul had the idealistic youth of the Republican side wrapped up. Now the idealogs on both sides are faced with a choice. 1) stick with the candidate that is closest to their ideology or 2) vote 3rd party or 3) stay home.

    LL

    By Blogger The Lady Logician, at 11:15 AM  

  • Young people of today are no different than young people of yesterday. Short attention spans and shorter patience.

    One thing is different, however. A larget percentage of them identify as conservative than those of the 90s. Quite a lot are becoming koolaid averse.

    By Blogger Kermit, at 11:19 AM  

  • That's what I love about you Kermit - your cynicism...but there is some truth in it. Young adults have always had "short attention spans" and that tends to not agree with politics.

    I do have hope that more and more kids become what I am trying to teach the Junior Logician to be - someone who asks questions about issues rather than just accepting what their teachers (and parents) tell them politically as gospel fact. The more they ask "why" the more then trend toward a more conservative mindset - in my experience.

    LL

    By Blogger The Lady Logician, at 11:28 AM  

  • The "flip-flop on Iraq" belongs to McCain and Bush. For years, they have rejected withdrawal timetables, equating an end to the occupation with "surrender."

    Now, McCain and Bush have agreed that we must have a timetable for bringing the troops home. Last Friday McCain told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that Barack Obama's 16-month plan is "a pretty good timetable."

    By Blogger rmwarnick, at 11:45 AM  

  • Oh come on...you know better than that. President Bush and Senator McCain have always said that withdrawal timetables would be set DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND AND THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMANDERS IN THE FIELD! Senator Obama went from it doesn't matter what the field conditions are to withdrawal being dependent of field conditions BACK to it doesn't matter what the conditions are.

    Right now conditions are such that the troops ARE coming home - slowly and with the blessing of the Iraqi government, but they are coming home. Is that a flip-flop in your mind?

    LL

    By Blogger The Lady Logician, at 11:55 AM  

  • Senator McCain last January:

    "If we surrender and wave a white flag, like Senator Clinton wants to do, and withdraw, as Governor Romney wanted to do, then there will be chaos, genocide, and the cost of American blood and treasure would be dramatically higher."

    Last year, when Congress passed a bill requiring a timetable, Bush vetoed it. White House spokesperson Dana Perino released a statement minutes after the vote, calling the bill "disappointing legislation that insists on a surrender date..."

    They have always equated withdrawal with surrender. What changed their mind? Green Zone PM al-Maliki decided to back Senator Obama's 16-month withdrawal timetable.

    By Blogger rmwarnick, at 12:23 PM  

  • What changed? The conditions in Iraq.

    Besides, wasn't Obama's 16 month timetable introduced 12 months ago? Why are we still sitting on 16 months?

    By Blogger Cameron, at 1:56 PM  

  • Um, Senator Obama's 16-month timetable was intended to start in January 2009. It could have started earlier but somebody else is still in the White House!

    BTW, we now learn that the Bush administration is getting ready to announce that all U.S. forces will withdraw to their bases by the end of this year. Then half of the American troops will leave Iraq in 2009. The rest is subject to further negotiation with the Green Zone government.

    As far as the conditions in Iraq, they continue to deteriorate.

    By Blogger rmwarnick, at 2:20 PM  

  • rmwarnick - you are the only one of the opinion that conditions are deteriorating in Iraq. Even the NY Times came out this week and admitted that things have gotten better in Iraq. Perhaps you are confusing it with Afghanistan which IS deteriorating.

    LL

    By Blogger The Lady Logician, at 6:55 PM  

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