Polling Analysis

A friend sent me their copy of the Evans Novak Political Report. Now before some of you more liberal readers scoff, realize that Robert Novak is considered to be the consummate pro by everyone in DC and by those who seriously follow politics. That said I found their insights on the most recent polling to be extremely interesting.

1. The seven-charge indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), highlights two themes of this year: Republican losses in Congress will range from bad to catastrophic, and the anti-reform wing of the GOP seems to be steeped in corruption.
   
   
2. The good news for Democrats is that the indictment could lead to another Senate seat pickup. The good news for conservatives is that the continued march into scandal or even into jail of pro-pork, old-school GOP lawmakers could help the conservative reform wing of the party.

The anti-reform wing of the Republican Party does indeed seem to be steeped in corruption. Whether it is true or not matters not - in this biz, perception IS reality and the sooner that the RNC, the state party officials and the incumbents themselves realize this, the sooner the GOP can start regaining seats. This analysis also bodes quite well for candidates like Jason Chaffetz. As he said in a recent interview with Tammy Bruce, issues like fiscal discipline and integrity ARE resonating with the voters.

What also struck me was the analysis of the Presidential race. I want to break it down into a couple of pieces.

National Polls: The complete lack of movement in the national polls is good news for Sen. John McCain and bad news for Sen. Barack Obama, even as the Democrat continues to hold a modest lead.

First, a word of caution: National polls are generally given undue attention in the press. There is no national election, but rather 51 state elections. On that score, our Electoral College count shows a razor-thin Obama lead (273 to 265).

I have to agree 100% with this statement. While polls are a good snapshot of the national mood they don't mean a thing - especially this far out.

1. The usefulness in national polls is in getting rough ideas of a candidate's popularity, and more importantly as a judge of momentum. It is on this latter score that Obama needs to worry. On June 4, Rasmussen Reports released its first daily tracking poll of the general election (3,000 likely voters over three nights, with a margin of error of +/-2%), and it showed Obama 47%, McCain 45%. Fifty-seven days later, the Wednesday, July 30 poll showed Obama at 48% to McCain's 46%—virtually no movement. In the interim, neither candidate has shown movement outside the margin of error.
   
   
2. The first observation to draw is that voters aren't paying close attention, and so minimal movement is to be expected. This is important: It's still too early to foresee the outcome of the race.

If you remember, July polling in 2004 had John Kerry up on President George W. Bush and we all know how that turned out, don't we.

4. But the deeper significance of these national poll numbers is the way in which Obama lags his party and has failed to break 50% nationally, even while all the breaks go his way.

5. In all corners of the country, it's good to be a Democrat and bad to be a Republican. Democrats are guaranteed double-digit gains in the U.S. House (with pickups possible even in places like Alabama and Idaho) and significant gains in the Senate (with no seriously vulnerable incumbents or open seats). On generic ballots, Democrats post 15% leads.

6. Why does Obama lag his party? His unprecedented combination of youth, race, and inexperience makes many voters wary. Playing basketball well and often appeals to many voters, but it may come across to others as unpresidential, especially in combination with his thin résumé and younger-than-his-age looks.

7. Even more worrisome is the complete lack of a poll bump from Obama's overseas visit. He conducted himself well, and scored a coup with the "Maliki endorsement" (the statement by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in favor of an Obama-like timetable for withdrawal from Iraq). The trip was specifically aimed at making him "look presidential."

The "Maliki endorsement" was followed by a high ranking Iraqi official saying this.

TERMED a "learning" trip, Sen. Barack Obama's eight- day tour of eight nations in the Middle East and Europe turned out to be little more than a series of photo ops to enhance his international credentials.

"He looked like a man in a hurry," a source close to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said last week. "He was not interested in what we had to say."

That does not sound like a ringing endorsement.

8. His world tour had two downsides: his utter refusal to accept that the surge was successful or to offer a credible counter-argument makes him look more like a demagogue than a pragmatist. Showing up in London, Paris, and Berlin could make him look more like jet-setter or Euro-rail-hopping student than a world leader. Declaring himself a "fellow citizen of the world," further feeds that perception.

A sentiment that was echoed by the above mentioned senior Iraqi official.

In private, though, Iraqi officials admit that Obama's analysis is "way off the mark." Without the surge, the Sunni tribes wouldn't have switched sides to help flush out al Qaeda. And the strong US military presence enabled the new Iraqi army to defeat Iran-backed Shiite militias in Basra and Baghdad.

Lastly...

9. Regarding state-by-state polls, closer examination reveals more troubles for Obama than a surface examination would suggest. In many states where Obama is "ahead" in the polls, such as Nevada, there remain nearly 20% undecided or third-party voters. Almost all of these voters will eventually choose Obama or McCain. Obama's appeal has been so clearly on display, and Republicans are so unpopular already, that it's hard to imagine what Obama could do to win over the voters who are still undecided, especially in the states where Obama already campaigned hard in the primaries.

What is, I think most concerning (or it should be anyway) is in blue purple states like Minnesota where Senator Obama is only up by a couple of points. In this current toxic atmosphere (for Republicans anyway), he should be way up in Minnesota.

Is this all written in stone - of course not. We still have over three months until Election Day and a lot can happen in this short period of time. However, these are trends that, going into the DNC Convention, have to be troubling the brain trust at the DNC Headquarters.