Losing Ground Part 2

I have been talking about some of the things that have pointed toward vulnerability in the Obama campaign and their effects on the polls. The latest has been the Russia/Georgia conflict.

War doesn't change anything? Wish it were true - but war has been humankind's preferred means of effecting change.

We're all - right and left - getting an in-your-face lesson about how the world really works. Passive resistance only has a chance when your opponent believes in the rule of law and respect for human rights. Gandhi was effective against law-abiding Britain, but he would've frozen to death in the Soviet gulag - if he'd lived long enough to reach the camps.

I'd love it if we lived in a world where war truly didn't work. But war does work. That doesn't mean we shouldn't pursue other means of resolving international crises - but effective idealism has to be grounded in a practical grasp of present reality.

To make the world a better place, we have to begin with a clear-eyed assessment of what kind of place the world is.

Putin just showed us what stirring words about democracy and freedom are worth in the face of tanks and combat aircraft. The Georgians had the noble ideas and lofty dreams; the Russians had the troops and ammunition. Guess who won?

Today, Reuters/Zogby released their new poll and IF it is to be believed, the American voters have taken this "in your face" lesson to heart.

As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling - Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.

While the methodology appears to be valid, I still have my doubts about John Zogby and his polling methods. Zogby has had a horrible track record of late - missing the mark in the 2000 and 2004 elections badly. However the raw numbers, when taken with the context of the Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, USAToday and other polls (and the RCP average that I posted on last night) seem to back up the contention that Senator Obama's campaign is in real trouble heading into the convention. Take this data for example:

Obama Support July August Difference
Democrats 83% 79% -9%
Women 50% 42% -8%
Catholics 47% 36% -11%
Under 35 59% 47% -12%
College Grads 51% 40% -11%
Live In Cities 54% 43% -11%
Income < $50k 53% 46% -7%
Southerners 46% 35% -11%

The double digit loss of support among key Democratic demographics (Women, Under 35, Collete grads) should be the most troubling trend for the Obama campaign as these are the core of the "new voters" that Senator Obama is staking his campaign on. His support among Souther voters is also troubling, especially as word of his vote on the Illinois Born Alive Protection Act starts to get around.

What should really trouble the DNC is the fact that their guy is going into his convention in a statistical tie with a candidate who the pundits said early on had no shot...especially when you consider that prior to Obama's grand European tour he held an easy double digit lead.

One has to wonder if the super delegates are suddenly reconsidering the wisdom of throwing their support behind Senator Obama as early as they did. Is that the phone I hear ringing? Senator Clinton on line 1!