Pinky Purple Minnesota?
From the "Is It Possible or Is It Too Little Too Late" comes this KSTP/Survey USA poll.
The sample size was 800 adults and it yielded 747 registered voters and 669 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.9%. The party breakdown was 32% Republican, 39% Democrats and 25% Independents.
The Party breakdown is pretty close for Minnesota - unlike the Minnesota poll that tends to sample 40 to 45% Democrats. I think that the the number of Undecideds is about right too. I find it very odd (and maybe a little unrealistic) that these national polls have 10 to 14% who say that they are undecided.
Does this mean Minnesota will flip on Tuesday. I doubt it. The sheer number of Democrats in the Twin Cities will probably carry the state for Senator Obama. But what it does mean is that the Republican Party of Minnesota has made progress in the last four years. It has been a long slow slog, but it is happening. While it may not mean much in the Presidential race, it could help not only Senator Coleman, but all of the state House and Senate Candidates. The Democratically led state House and Senate said that they would not raise Minnesota taxes and then the first thing they did was raise lots and LOTS of taxes. The voters have a long memory for broken promises and have rewarded politicians appropriately for doing so.
Four years ago, Minnesota was a solid blue purple state. If this poll is correct, it is no longer a state that politicians can take for granted. It is a pinker shade of purple and getting redder by the day.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? Senator John McCain 46%, Senator Barack Obama 49%, Other 3% and Undecided 2%.
The sample size was 800 adults and it yielded 747 registered voters and 669 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.9%. The party breakdown was 32% Republican, 39% Democrats and 25% Independents.
The Party breakdown is pretty close for Minnesota - unlike the Minnesota poll that tends to sample 40 to 45% Democrats. I think that the the number of Undecideds is about right too. I find it very odd (and maybe a little unrealistic) that these national polls have 10 to 14% who say that they are undecided.
Does this mean Minnesota will flip on Tuesday. I doubt it. The sheer number of Democrats in the Twin Cities will probably carry the state for Senator Obama. But what it does mean is that the Republican Party of Minnesota has made progress in the last four years. It has been a long slow slog, but it is happening. While it may not mean much in the Presidential race, it could help not only Senator Coleman, but all of the state House and Senate Candidates. The Democratically led state House and Senate said that they would not raise Minnesota taxes and then the first thing they did was raise lots and LOTS of taxes. The voters have a long memory for broken promises and have rewarded politicians appropriately for doing so.
Four years ago, Minnesota was a solid blue purple state. If this poll is correct, it is no longer a state that politicians can take for granted. It is a pinker shade of purple and getting redder by the day.
Labels: Minnesota Red, MN Legislature
posted by The Lady Logician at
10:48 PM
2 Comments:
any one poll can be an outlier, the poll average looks pretty blue still
By
craig41, at 12:43 PM
Normally I would agree with you craig, but Survey USA was spot on in 2004 and 2006. They were far more accurate than the Star Tribune's Minnesota Poll.
LL
By
The Lady Logician, at 8:16 PM
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