Wishful Thinking or Fractured Fairy Tale

Once upon a time in a magical land, there lived a charming young knight who gained prominence for slaying the old dragon named Cannon. This young knight had his legions of fans and many detractors. These detractors, tried their hardest to take the gleam off of the young knights armour by spreading many falsehoods about the young knight - or his twisting words in such a manner that the words had no resemblance pf what the young knight had really said.

Freshman Rep. Jason Chaffetz says several GOP state convention delegates are urging him to challenge fellow Republican Sen. Bob Bennett for his seat next year, and Chaffetz is keeping the door open to that possibility.

"I don't have any intention of doing that (running against Bennett)" now, he told the Deseret News. "But I guess I like to keep my options open. Never say never."

Emphasis mine.

All story telling aside, this has to be one of the lamest attempts at stirring up controversy that I have seen out of the media in these parts. I do know that there are conservative activists who are trying to talk Jason into running against Senator Bennett AND/OR Senator Hatch. Here are just a couple of reasons why the timing is not right in 2010....

1) As a freshman in Congress, Jason has had more media recognition than most freshman Congresspeople could dream of. He has also had a couple of pieces of legislation see the light of committee which for a freshman in the MINORITY PARTY is huge. However, he still does not have the track record that he would need to make the step to the Senate. A couple more years in the House would be a plus.

2) With redistricting on the horizon, Jason stepping aside to run for the Senate would probably open up his seat for Democrat to pick up. Let's not forget that part of his district includes a portion of Salt Lake County. Dividing Salt Lake County between Matheson's district and the new 4th District will open the door for one almost guaranteed pick-up. Depending on how badly the 3rd and the 1st get gerrymandered to create the 4th, the Republican strong-hold of Provo could essentially be wiped out by one of the few liberal enclaves in the state.

3) A protracted primary fight could (if the Democrats actually put up a serious candidate which is always a wild card) leave the Republican Party divided enough to hand that seat over to the Dems as well. While I realize that this was a reason why Jason should not run against Chris Cannon, there is a reason why it is still "conventional wisdom".

4) Firebrands like Jason tend to do better in the House than the do in the Senate. That, my friends, is a fact of legislative life.

However, I suspect that this is yet another made-up media fairy tale. The field (to challenge Sen. Bennett) is already a crowded one with a couple of candidates that stand a chance of "pulling off a Chaffetz" in this race. The need (by the media) to throw out the possibility of a Chaffetz campaign will (the thinking goes) chase a couple of these more talented challengers off out of respect for a Congressman that they know, like and respect. In doing this, the media secures another term for Senator Bennett.