Monday Night Ponderings
We've chatted before about some of the problems plaguing the Obama campaign. The Politico today has a column that takes the discussion one step further.
Emphasis mine. The Rasmussen Daily tracking poll has Senator Obama back up be a slim 2% - well within the margin of error.
They have a great point. The average voter does not even start paying attention to campaigns until after Labor Day, so I expect things to change once the 2 conventions are in the history books. That said, here are the abbreviated 7 worrisome signs.
I'm not sure that I agree with everything he lists. I think the economy is going to be a huge issue, but is it because of fear - or anger that the Democrats in control of the House and the Senate have done nothing in the two years they have been in charge. I do agree with point #7. Americans seem to like things better when the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties.
Which leads to a couple of questions.....are the Democrats willing to lose the Legislature in order to win the White House? Or will they lose the White House and keep the Legislature? Fun things to speculate while we wait for the conventions to roll around.
A few weeks back, Time magazine was musing that John McCain was in danger of sliding from “a long shot” to a “no-shot.” Around the same time, a hard-nosed former Hillary Clinton insider declared the race “effectively over” thanks to the McCain campaign’s ineptitude, the tanking U.S. economy and Obama’s advantages in cash, charisma and hope. And Obama, up by three to six points nationally, was about to leverage a much-anticipated trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe into a pre-convention poll surge.
Instead, his supporters are now suffering a pre-Denver panic attack, watching as John McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls – with Rasmussen’s most recent daily national tracker showing a statistical dead heat.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has been privately enumerating her doubts about Obama to supporters, according to people who have spoken with her. Clinton’s pollster Mark Penn recently unveiled a PowerPoint presentation red-flagging Obama’s lukewarm leads among white female voters and Hispanics – while predicting a five-point swing could turn a presumed Obama win into a McCain landslide.
“It’s not that people think McCain will win – it’s that they are realizing that McCain could win,” says Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown, whose surveys show tight races in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. “This election is about Barack Obama — not John McCain — it's about whether Barack Obama passes muster. Every poll shows that people want a Democratic president, the problem is they’re not sure they want Barack Obama.”
Emphasis mine. The Rasmussen Daily tracking poll has Senator Obama back up be a slim 2% - well within the margin of error.
Obama’s aides point to the stability of his small national lead, say they aren’t worried about his summer stall and think his numbers will improve when voters begin tuning in to the conventions.
They have a great point. The average voter does not even start paying attention to campaigns until after Labor Day, so I expect things to change once the 2 conventions are in the history books. That said, here are the abbreviated 7 worrisome signs.
1. Race...How much does his race factor into tightening contests in Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota and Ohio? Nobody knows — and that’s the problem.
A huge challenge for Obama, insiders say, is simply determining how much skin color will matter in November. Race is nearly impossible to poll — no one ever says “I’m a racist” — and no campaign wants it revealed they are even asking questions on the issue.
2. Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped. His chances of ending the Democrats 44-year losing streak in the commonwealth are pretty good — thanks to the explosive growth of the liberal D.C. suburbs, and a 147,000 spike in voter registration sure to benefit Democrats. But Obama’s aides privately concede his odds in Virginia are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses Ohio and Florida.
3. Michigan’s in play for McCain....Simmering tensions between predominantly black Detroit and its white suburbs could hurt Obama. And McCain’s surrogates were handed a gift in the jailing of Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, an Obama supporter.
4. Bad times could be good for McCain. If anger helps Democrats, fear works to the advantage of Republicans.
. Where have you gone, Ross Perot? Bill Clinton, the lone two-term Democratic president since FDR, wouldn’t have been elected if independent Ross Perot hadn’t siphoned 19 percent of the vote in 1992. Former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, staging an indie bid from McCain’s right, has little cash and doesn’t seem to be a factor in competitive states.
6. The Legacy of LBJ, Jimmy and Bubba. Barack Obama would have been a trailblazer no matter what —but the Democrats’ trail to the White House has been remarkably narrow since 1960, accommodating only Southern whites with border-state strength: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. (Add Al Gore if you’re counting the popular vote.)
7. Americans may want divided government. Some Democratic operatives think a possible landslide for their party in congressional races could backfire on Obama.
I'm not sure that I agree with everything he lists. I think the economy is going to be a huge issue, but is it because of fear - or anger that the Democrats in control of the House and the Senate have done nothing in the two years they have been in charge. I do agree with point #7. Americans seem to like things better when the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties.
Which leads to a couple of questions.....are the Democrats willing to lose the Legislature in order to win the White House? Or will they lose the White House and keep the Legislature? Fun things to speculate while we wait for the conventions to roll around.
Labels: Presidential Politics
6 Comments:
Why can't Republicans talk about winning the Legislature, the Congress AND the White House? Sure, it may be a long shot (or not) but you don't win if you don't try, and you don't try if you're told by your own party that you don't have a chance. Geez, Louise.
J. Ewing
By Anonymous, at 9:08 PM
I understand what you are saying but honestly Jer I just don't see it happening. Heaven only knows the Dems in the Legislature are trying their hardest to throw away Congress and the White House, but with ACORN on their side I just don't see how it will happen......
Although I would love to be proven wrong here.....
LL
By The Lady Logician, at 9:12 PM
Of course, Senator Obama leads in electoral votes 289-249. McCain is a tad short of the 270 needed to win.
By rmwarnick, at 10:12 AM
You keep counting those states before they're won. In fact, Obama should take a nice vacation in Hawaii. Oh, wait...
By Kermit, at 4:03 PM
RM - that's funny...I don't recall any ballots being cast yet. Maybe that is because we still are 3 months away from election day????
Keep counting those unhatched chickens. That way when you all quit campaigning, the people who are serious about winning IN NOVEMBER will have a clear shot at the electorate.
LL
By The Lady Logician, at 4:44 PM
If you pay attention to politics, you ought to be aware that the presidential election is not a national election-- there are fifty separate state elections held on the same day. The Electoral College determines the winner.
That's how Bush became president after losing the popular vote.
By rmwarnick, at 10:13 AM
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