Too Close To Call?
The University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute and MPR released their latest poll on the MN Senate race. In it, the polling shows Al Franken with a 1 point lead over incumbent Senator Norm Coleman. Now the minute that the poll came out, the MN GOP started screaming bloody murder - saying yet again that MPR poll is biased against Republicans which is partly true. As always, the MPR/Humphrey Poll oversampled Democrats in their poll. Of the registered voters polled, 50% of the sample identified themselves as Democrats, 10% were Independents and 39% were Republicans. No hint as what that missing 1% was. However, as much as the MNGOP says that the MPR poll is inaccurate (again) remember that the MNGOP said that in 2006 when Republicans got slaughtered in the polls!
All of that said, there are some secondary statistics that belie the results of the poll. First, 46% of those Democrats polled (who say that they are likely to vote in the September primary) say that Franken's views are "too liberal". In the main polling sample, more voters considered the political attitude of Senator Coleman to be "about right". Only 33% said Franken was "about right". Conversely, 46% of this group said that Franken was "too liberal". More of the "swing voters" said that they supported Coleman 35% to Franken's 26%. Coleman's support with his base is greater than Franken's (81% to 71%) .
One other point to consider (in this equation) comes from this Rasmussen poll (HT Powerline). If the poll is accurate and Democrats are losing people who identify themselves as "Democrat", this oversampling could drastically skew the results of the poll dramatically.
The key to this race may just be Dean Barkley. Most of Barkley's support comes from Democrats which hurts Al Franken. With 9% of those responding saying that they support Barkley, that could prove to be Franken's undoing.
In the end, this is why polls are at once a helpful tool and a potentially unreliable bellweather. Especially now, there is too much change taking place for the polls to accurately keep up with. Which is going to make this election all that more fun to watch.
All of that said, there are some secondary statistics that belie the results of the poll. First, 46% of those Democrats polled (who say that they are likely to vote in the September primary) say that Franken's views are "too liberal". In the main polling sample, more voters considered the political attitude of Senator Coleman to be "about right". Only 33% said Franken was "about right". Conversely, 46% of this group said that Franken was "too liberal". More of the "swing voters" said that they supported Coleman 35% to Franken's 26%. Coleman's support with his base is greater than Franken's (81% to 71%) .
One other point to consider (in this equation) comes from this Rasmussen poll (HT Powerline). If the poll is accurate and Democrats are losing people who identify themselves as "Democrat", this oversampling could drastically skew the results of the poll dramatically.
The key to this race may just be Dean Barkley. Most of Barkley's support comes from Democrats which hurts Al Franken. With 9% of those responding saying that they support Barkley, that could prove to be Franken's undoing.
In the end, this is why polls are at once a helpful tool and a potentially unreliable bellweather. Especially now, there is too much change taking place for the polls to accurately keep up with. Which is going to make this election all that more fun to watch.
Labels: Polls
posted by The Lady Logician at
8:20 PM
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