What Is Going On In Chicago?

That seems to be a fair question to ask today. According Hillbuzz (and consider the source) there may be a lot going on in my old hometown.

There IS a RICO investigation of ACORN and the Obama campaign underway - this has now been established by the mainstream media. Right now it’s rumored here in Chicago that Patrick Fitzgerald is heading it (confirmation on that has not come yet). There is a lot of activity in Chicago right now, with a lot of IRS agents looking into the finances coming in and out of this city, and across state lines (this was established on Monday when the GOP issued emergency press releases that much of Obama’s campaign contributions could very well be illegal foreign contributions - what appears to be deliberately poor record keeping designed to hide the true identities and monetary sources of online donors is at issue here). We see in 15 states now that ACORN is being busted for attempted voter fraud, and for fraudulent, illegal voter registratons in the hundreds of thousands, if not a million. The article below states, and we have confirmed this with people who know for sure, that the people who gathered evidence of Obama’s fraud and voter intimidation techniques during the primaries against Hillary Clinton are sharing everything they have with the Republican Party and the federal government.

What’s happening here is something we have never seen before: centrist Clinton Democrats and Republicans are working together to expose the DNC and Obama campaign’s illegal activities and orchestrated, coordinated fraud. Both parties are working with federal agents to investigate ACORN, which has been funded with upwards of $800,000 in questionable donations from the Obama campaign (in what appears to be the expressed and explicit direction to engineer voter fraud in the general election). The tactics being employed now in the 15 states currently under investigation are the VERY SAME TACTICS we saw on the ground in Iowa, Texas, Colorado, Nebraska, Indiana, and other states working for Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

And all of this ties back to Chicago.

Where the Obama campaign and DNC are now based.

These rumors have been coming fast and furious the last few days but until now I had treated them as just that....rumors. However, with the reports of 15 states now running individual investigations a RICO investigation certainly would be possible. Whether the Obama Campaign has any ties (other than paying them $800,000 for voter registration) to ACORN's fraud may be a stretch to prove.

The paragraph that I found to be intriguing was this one.

Republicans and centrist Democrats are joined together on this effort to get the truth out about Obama before the November election. We firmly believe in McCain’s victory and do not believe it hinges on any developments with RICO. The polls, in our opinon, are wrong, and the internal numbers we see coming out of NC, VA, PA, OH, IN and FL show McCain wins in all of those states (there is no mathematical possibility for Obama to win without taking PA, OH, or FL). We believe after McCain’s win there will be a continued prosecution of Obama and members of the Democratic party for voter fraud under RICO statutes in the months and years ahead. ACORN and leftist Democrats have gone too far this time — for years ACORN has engineered deliberate election fraud using taxpayer dollars funneled to it by Democrats. This time, with both Democrats and Republicans joined against them, ACORN Is going down…and we believe it will ultimately take Obama, Axelrod, and most of today’s Democratic leadership down with it.

Emphasis mine. Now they do not say where the internal polls they are looking at come from (a hot tip there IMHO) however, they do talk about how the internals of many of these polls are badly skewed. For example:

That’s why we’ve also noticed the polling companies changing their party ID samples in the last two or three weeks, upping Democrats’ party ID to 50% in some polls, and dropping Republicans down to just 20%, with 30% Independent. If you look at this critically, you’d see that Democrats have never enjoyed more than a 4% historical party ID advantage. In 2006, a year that Democrats RAGED against both Bush and the sex-scandal plagued GOP (Mark Foley, Larry Craig, and other characters), Democrats had just a 3% party ID advantage. All of this means polls should be using samples with 39% Democrats, 35% Republican, and 26% Independent.

Now it could be that this polling (and the 2000 and 2004 polling which also over sampled Democrats) could be basing those percentages on the increases in voter registration. If they are that could be a huge reason behind why the 2000 and 2004 polling was off at the end and why this years could be way off! It could be an unintended consequence of all of these bogus Democrat registrations!

Wizbang blog has a post up that could possibly explain the polling discrepancies further.

Friday's tracking poll had Obama up by ten points. But that lead is actually the result of two separate tracks, one for Obama and one for McCain. 51 to 41, so they say.

OK, that's their starting number, the one they put in the headline. What drives those numbers, I wonder? I always want to see the internals, but Gallup has been getting sneaky, they release that data later, generally a week afterwards. The most recent detailed support by party I have is from the week ending October 5, when Gallup had Obama leading 50-42. I also note for reference that Gallup showed Obama leading 50-42 on September 28, 48-44 on September 21, and McCain leading 47-45 on September 14. The party affiliation for those dates should help us see where the changes came from.

Let's start with Gallup's base support for the race, conservative republicans for McCain and liberal democrats for Obama. Here's how that looked:

Sep 14: McCain 95%, Obama 94%
Sep 21: McCain 93%, Obama 95%
Sep 28: McCain 93%, Obama 95%
Oct 05: McCain 94%, Obama 95%

Pretty comparable, noting to show a reason for changes. Next up, cross-party support, conservative democrats for McCain, liberal/moderate republicans for Obama:

Sep 14: McCain 17%, Obama 16%
Sep 21: McCain 19%, Obama 15%
Sep 28: McCain 19%, Obama 15%
Oct 05: McCain 16%, Obama 19%

Well, Obama got a boost going into October, but this is a pretty small group, hard to see it swinging the overall vote by the way we've seen. That leaves the independents:

Sep 14: McCain 38%, Obama 24%
Sep 21: McCain 31%, Obama 22%
Sep 28: McCain 31%, Obama 22%
Oct 05: McCain 32%, Obama 23%

McCain has a good advantage here, so that cannot explain the deficit. As I explained before, the only way this can be happening, is that Gallup has weighted the democrats more heavily, assuming that they will be a greater portion of the voter population this year than in past elections.

Now I fully admit that this is conjecture at this point in time. However, I suspect that the Obama supporters realize that their guy is not as secure as they would like us all to believe. If they were certain that the deal was done they would not be going out of their way to call every legit criticism of their guys "racism" or look for "racism" in something as simple as a white ladies jacket.